Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$9.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules provide clear and objective standards for determining the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The criteria explicitly define what constitutes officially holding office, including swearing-in and formal confirmation, while outlining extensive exclusions for interim, unofficial, or pending appointments. In the event of competing claims or ambiguity from domestic authorities, the rules specify an explicit fallback hierarchy pointing to official United Nations protocol records.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pete Hegseth will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Pete Hegseth officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET, meaning he was formally appointed, confirmed, and sworn in, or confirmed by official government information. Being merely nominated, announced, acting in an unofficial or consultant capacity, or having an appointment effective after the target date does not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual officially holds the role or if no individual holds the position. If multiple heads of state are listed, resolution favors the individual with primary status or who assumed office first. Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela serves as the primary source, with UN listings and credible reporting consensus as fallbacks.
Key dates
- Target evaluation time: — The date and time at which the head of state of Venezuela is evaluated.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela, UN listings, and credible reporting consensus
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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