Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$1.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules establish a precise snapshot timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET and clearly define what qualifies as officially holding the role of head of state. Resolution relies on official government sources and an explicit link to the United Nations protocol directory as a primary fallback if governmental records are disputed or unclear. Standard tie-breaking rules and an extensive list of non-qualifying arrangements, such as interim, advisory, or oversight roles, are detailed directly in the text.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marco Rubio officially holds the office of head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET by being formally appointed, confirmed if required, sworn in, or confirmed by official government information. The market resolves to No if another individual holds the role or if Rubio's appointment is not yet effective, is effective after the cutoff, has expired or terminated, is in an unofficial capacity, is only as a designated successor, or is an oversight role rather than the position itself. If multiple individuals are listed, the one with primary status or who assumed office first takes precedence. If no individual holds the position, it resolves to No Head of State. Resolution is decided using official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, falling back to the UN Head of State list and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation deadline: — December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela, the United Nations, and credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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