Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$5.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market evaluates who officially serves as head of state of Venezuela at a specific snapshot in time: December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules clearly establish what constitutes officially holding office, specifically requiring formal appointment and swearing-in while explicitly excluding mere nominations, advisory capacities, and expired mandates. The resolution hierarchy is structured, relying first on official statements from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, followed by a specific, linked United Nations protocol directory, with a consensus of credible reporting serving only as a secondary fallback if official records are unclear. Defined tiebreakers address contested claims by prioritizing primary designation or seniority of assumption.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Evan Pettus will officially hold the office of head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Evan Pettus officially holds the office of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET by being formally appointed, confirmed, and sworn in, or confirmed by official government information. Individuals who are merely nominated, designated, serving in an unofficial capacity, appointed effective after the cutoff, or who vacated the office before the cutoff do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds the position or if no individual holds the office. The resolution source is official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with United Nations listings and credible reporting consensus serving as secondary sources if government records are unclear.
Key dates
- Determination timestamp: — The market evaluates who officially holds the position on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela, the United Nations, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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