Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and precise resolution criteria based on who officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The definitions explicitly cover formal appointment, swearing-in, and official recognition, and detailed exclusions outline what does not qualify. An official United Nations protocol link is designated as a direct fallback if the Venezuelan government's position is unclear, leaving minimal room for decider subjectivity or unexpected edge cases.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Donald Trump is the individual who officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, having been formally appointed, confirmed, and sworn in, or otherwise confirmed by official government information. Individuals who are merely nominated, whose appointments take effect later, whose terms expired or were terminated earlier, who serve in an unofficial or consultant capacity, or who hold oversight roles do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds the office or if no individual holds the position. If multiple heads of state are listed, primary status or earliest assumption of office determines the individual. The primary resolution source is official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with the UN protocol list and credible reporting consensus serving as secondary sources.
Key dates
- Resolution evaluation point: — The market determines who officially holds the position on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, the United Nations, and consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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