Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$4.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish an exact timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET to determine the head of state of Venezuela. The criteria for what constitutes officially holding the role are thoroughly defined, including clear exclusions for acting, nominated, or unofficial roles. Resolution relies primarily on official communications from the UN-recognized Venezuelan government, backed by a direct link to the United Nations official protocol list of heads of state as a structured fallback, leaving little room for subjective interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dan Caine officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Dan Caine is formally appointed, confirmed, sworn in, or confirmed by official government information as the head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Being nominated, designated for a future date, serving unofficially, or having a term that ended beforehand does not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds the position or if no individual holds the position. If multiple heads of state are listed, resolution goes to the one with primary status or whoever assumed the role first. Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela serves as the primary deciding source, with the UN protocol list and credible reporting as fallbacks.
Key dates
- Resolution evaluation point: — The specific time and date when official head of state status is evaluated.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela, with fallback to the United Nations and credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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