Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$3.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly specified, defining official status, sworn-in requirements, and precise disqualifying scenarios as of December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET. The rules designate the United Nations-recognized government of Venezuela as the primary authority, backed by an exact United Nations protocol registry link if official domestic documentation is unclear. Standard tie-breaking rules and definitions handle instances of multiple claimants or vacant leadership, leaving minimal room for decider interpretation or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dinorah Figuera will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Dinorah Figuera is formally appointed, confirmed (if required), and sworn in, or otherwise confirmed by official government information as the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET. Individuals who are merely nominated, designated with a future effective date, expired, resigned, serving unofficially, or acting only as successors do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds the position. If no individual holds the role, the market resolves to No Head of State. If multiple individuals are listed, the one with primary status (or who assumed office first) is selected. Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela is the primary resolution source, followed by UN listings and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Target evaluation time: — The market evaluates who officially holds the head of state position at this time.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, the UN, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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