Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$25.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules establish a precise resolution timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET and define clearly what constitutes officially holding the office of head of state. A structured hierarchy of sources is provided, prioritizing the UN-recognized government of Venezuela and offering a direct UN protocol directory link as an explicit fallback if the government's position is unclear. Explicit tie-breaking criteria and comprehensive exclusion criteria for unofficial, pending, or former roles leave little room for subjective interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Frank Donovan officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Frank Donovan officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, having been formally appointed, confirmed, and sworn in, or otherwise confirmed by official government information. Individuals who are merely nominated, whose terms take effect later, who left office earlier, who act in an unofficial capacity, or who hold an oversight role do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds the role. The market resolves to 'No Head of State' if nobody holds the position. If multiple heads of state are listed, the one with primary status (or who assumed office first) is chosen. Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela decides resolution, falling back to UN protocol listings and credible reporting consensus.
Key dates
- Market Resolution Time: — Status as head of state is evaluated as of this date and time.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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