53.5¢
+4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 53.5%
$11.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
The title refers casually to a ceasefire continuing, but resolution strictly hinges on a detailed definition of a qualifying US strike impacting Iranian soil. The rules contain extensive exclusions, such as intercepted munitions, falling debris, cyber warfare, naval or artillery fire, and minor loitering munitions. Adjudicating whether a strike successfully impacted Iranian land without interception or whether an incident was caused by falling wreckage requires significant interpretation. Resolution relies on official US and Iranian military statements alongside a consensus of credible reporting, with a mandatory three-day waiting period if reports conflict, giving the decider wide discretion to evaluate the totality of evidence in fog-of-war scenarios.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The price rose from 45% to 53%, but available news reports and market data provide no clear catalyst for the move.
AI-generated · 18 Oct 2026, 13:05 UTC
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether the United States refrains from conducting specific qualifying direct strikes against Iran's terrestrial territory through November 22. It resolves based on strictly defined types of military strikes, excluding intercepted munitions, debris, cyber operations, artillery, and maritime or airspace strikes.
The market resolves to Yes if the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran by November 22 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The market resolves to No if the United States initiates an air strike (bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones) or surface-to-surface missile strike (cruise/ballistic missiles, one-way attack drones) that directly impacts Iran's terrestrial territory or internal waters before the deadline. Intercepted munitions, debris/wreckage, cyber actions, ground incursions, naval/artillery fire, short-range loitering munitions, and unexecuted threats do not qualify. Resolution is determined by official US/Iran government/military statements and a consensus of credible reporting, with up to a 3-day review window if reports conflict.
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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