38.5¢
−5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 38.5%
$688.7K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
The market title suggests a bilateral ceasefire between the United States and Iran, but the resolution rules only trigger on unilateral US military action directly impacting terrestrial Iranian territory. Iranian strikes against US forces, assets, or bases outside Iran do not resolve the market to No. Additionally, numerous forms of military engagement are explicitly excluded from breaking the condition, including naval gunfire, cyber warfare, maritime or airspace strikes, and any munition intercepted prior to impact regardless of resulting debris damage. Resolution relies on official statements and a consensus of credible reporting, with a mandatory three-day evaluation window if reports conflict.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The price fell from 44% to 19% as part of a broader repricing across 6 related market outcomes for the event.
News check after 20:00 UTC.
AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 16:20 UTC
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market tracks whether a ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds through November 30, defined specifically by the absence of qualifying direct US strikes hitting Iranian territory.
The market resolves to Yes if the United States does not conduct a qualifying military action against Iran by November 30 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves to No if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by that deadline. Qualifying actions include US-initiated air strikes (bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones) or surface-to-surface missile strikes (one-way attack drones, cruise or ballistic missiles) that directly impact the terrestrial territory or internal waters of Iran. Intercepted munitions, debris/wreckage, surface-to-air missiles, small arms, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval gunfire, artillery, mortars, rocket artillery, and minor short-range drone/ATGM strikes do not count. Resolution is determined by official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries, alongside a consensus of credible reporting. Conflicting reports allow up to 3 calendar days for adjudication.
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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