US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?
Last captured price
97.75¢
+2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 97.75%
$341K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The title refers casually to a ceasefire continuing, but the actual rules resolve entirely on whether the United States conducts specific categories of kinetic strikes directly impacting Iranian terrestrial territory. Extensive exclusions apply, such as rocket artillery, naval gunfire, minor loitering munitions, and intercepted munitions whose debris lands inside the country. Resolution relies on official US and Iranian statements alongside a broad consensus of credible reporting, giving the decider significant latitude to adjudicate conflicting claims. Additionally, if reports conflict near the October 18 deadline, resolution can be extended up to three full calendar days past the closing date to weigh the totality of evidence.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States avoids taking a qualifying military strike against terrestrial Iran through October 18, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Notably, qualifying strikes are strictly limited to US-initiated air or surface-to-surface missile strikes directly impacting Iran, explicitly excluding intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, naval fire, and minor munitions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if no qualifying US military action directly impacts Iran by October 18, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves to No if the United States executes a qualifying military action against Iran by that deadline. Qualifying actions are limited to US-initiated air strikes (bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones) or surface-to-surface missile strikes (cruise/ballistic missiles, one-way attack drones) that directly impact terrestrial Iran or its internal waters. Actions excluded from qualifying include intercepted or destroyed munitions, falling debris, surface-to-air missiles, small-arms fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval/artillery fire, MLRS, mortars, and minor strikes like FPV drones or ATGMs. Resolution is determined by official US and Iranian government/military information and a consensus of credible reporting, with a potential 3-day extension to evaluate conflicting reports.
Key dates
- Specified deadline: — 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.