US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Current price
32.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 32.5%
$512.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market title suggests tracking whether a broader mutual ceasefire holds, but the operational rules resolve strictly based on whether the United States initiates specific qualifying strikes directly impacting Iranian terrestrial territory. Iranian attacks against US forces, cyber operations, naval or artillery fire, and intercepted munitions do not trigger a negative resolution. Resolution relies on official US and Iranian military statements alongside a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit three-day adjudication window to evaluate disputed strikes near the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether a ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds through December 31 by monitoring for specific US military strikes directly impacting Iranian territory.
How it resolves
The market resolves to No if the United States initiates an air strike (bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones) or surface-to-surface missile strike (one-way attack drones, cruise/ballistic missiles) that directly impacts Iran's terrestrial territory or internal waters by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Non-qualifying actions include intercepted munitions, falling debris, surface-to-air missiles, small arms, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval/artillery/mortar/rocket fire, minor strikes (short-range loitering munitions, FPV drones, ATGMs), and unexecuted threats. Otherwise, the market resolves to Yes. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries, with a 3-day review period if reports conflict.
Key dates
- End date: 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the specified date
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting
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