US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?
Last captured price
99.9¢
+1.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 99.9%
$379.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title refers casually to a ceasefire continuing, but resolution strictly depends on whether the US executes specific qualifying military actions directly impacting Iranian territory. The rules feature detailed exclusions, explicitly ruling out intercepted munitions, falling debris, naval artillery, short-range loitering munitions, and strikes on maritime zones or airspace. Adjudication relies on official government statements and a consensus of credible reporting, giving the decider significant latitude to interpret evidence and attribution if accounts conflict. A three-day review buffer applies to conflicting reports near the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States refrains from conducting a qualifying military strike directly impacting Iran's terrestrial territory through October 17, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
How it resolves
The market resolves to No if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by October 17, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. A qualifying military action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by the US that directly impacts Iran's terrestrial territory or internal waters. Intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, naval gunfire, artillery, cyber operations, minor drone strikes, and unexecuted threats do not count. The market resolves to Yes otherwise. Resolution is decided using official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Cutoff time: — 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on October 17, 2026
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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