45.5¢
−13¢ · 24h
Implied probability 45.5%
$302.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
The title refers casually to a ceasefire continuing, but the rules strictly define resolution based on whether the United States conducts very specific military strikes impacting Iranian land territory. There is a detailed list of excluded actions, such as intercepted munitions, naval or artillery fire, rocket artillery, and short-range loitering munitions, meaning significant kinetic conflict could occur without triggering a negative outcome. Furthermore, determination relies on an undefined consensus of credible reporting alongside official statements from the US and Iranian governments, leaving adjudication to discretionary evaluation rather than an objective single registry. In the event of conflicting reports, resolution includes an automatic three-day waiting extension to evaluate the totality of information.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The market fell from 58% to 28% alongside 6 related ceasefire outcome markets repricing in the same period, the likely driver of the move.
News check after 20:00 UTC.
AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 16:20 UTC
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether the United States refrains from conducting a qualifying direct airstrike or surface-to-surface missile strike against the terrestrial territory of Iran through November 15.
The market resolves to Yes if the United States does not conduct a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves to No if the United States initiates an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts the terrestrial territory or internal waters of Iran by that time. Intercepted munitions, wreckage debris, surface-to-air strikes, artillery, cyber attacks, naval gunfire, small-arms fire, ground incursions, and minor drone or ATGM strikes do not qualify. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official information from the US and Iranian governments/militaries and credible reporting, allowing up to 3 calendar days to resolve conflicting reports.
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran, alongside a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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