Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

This event tracks whether Anthropic's valuation reaches or exceeds specified financial thresholds between market creation and December 31, 2026. Markets evaluate valuation benchmarks based on private market pricing or post-IPO public market capitalization.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as a ladder of valuation thresholds. Because each market tracks whether Anthropic reaches or exceeds a specific valuation level, multiple markets can resolve Yes if higher thresholds are reached.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount; otherwise, it resolves to No. If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing before the deadline, resolution also considers the implied listing valuation and subsequent public market capitalization (highest regular-hours price multiplied by total outstanding common shares). If acquired or merged without surviving as the parent, only pre-transaction data counts. Revisions to NPM data are disregarded unless correcting clearly erroneous figures.

Key dates

• Valuation evaluation end date: Dec 31, 2026
• Initial data check deadline: Jan 1, 2027 — Data check at 1:00 PM ET
• Extended data cutoff: Jan 4, 2027 — Markets may remain open until 11:59 PM ET if data is missing

Resolution source

Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts following an IPO or direct listing

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC