Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
Current price
83.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 83.5%
$279.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective criteria for determining valuation. While the question omits the specific year, the rules explicitly define the tracking window through December 31, 2026. Resolution relies on a specified Nasdaq Private Market data link with mechanical rules covering IPOs, direct listings, M&A scenarios, and data delays. The resolving authority has negligible discretion because outcomes are tied directly to published figures and standard exchange data.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's valuation reaches or exceeds $1.5 trillion by December 31, 2026, based on private secondary market pricing or public market capitalization if the company goes public.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds $1.5T. If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing before the end date, valuations implied by the listing price and highest regular-hours public market capitalization also qualify. Transaction or acquisition consideration is excluded if the company is acquired. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not reach or exceed $1.5T by December 31, 2026. Nasdaq Private Market, LLC data decides the outcome, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts following an IPO or direct listing. Revisions to NPM data after initial release are ignored unless correcting clearly erroneous data.
Key dates
- Valuation window end date: — End of the valuation measurement period.
- Data publication review time: — Time by which NPM data for all business dates must be published.
- Final resolution cutoff: — Latest time the market may stay open if NPM data was delayed.
Resolution source
Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts
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