Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Current price
56.5¢
Implied probability 56.5%
$747K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide a rigorous and objective framework for resolution. The outcome relies strictly on data published by Nasdaq Private Market at a specified URL, tracking Anthropic's valuation through December 31, 2026. Explicit instructions govern contingencies, including potential missing data, publication halts, IPO or direct listing scenarios, and corporate restructuring. In the event of an acquisition or merger where Anthropic is not the surviving parent entity, transaction consideration is excluded and only pre-closing valuations count. Data revisions made after publication are ignored unless resolving an obvious error. Overall, the decider has minimal discretion and the threshold is evaluated against precise primary data.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's valuation reaches $2.0 trillion by December 31, 2026, using Nasdaq Private Market data and potentially public market capitalization after an IPO.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's private market valuation, as reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds $2.0 trillion. If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing, the market will also consider the valuation implied by the IPO/direct listing price and the public market capitalization until December 31, 2026. Public market capitalization is calculated using the highest regular-hours trading price multiplied by outstanding common shares. If Anthropic is acquired or ceases to exist as an independent entity, only valuations prior to the transaction are considered. The market resolves No if the valuation does not reach $2.0 trillion by December 31, 2026. If NPM has not published all relevant data by January 1, 2027, the market may remain open until January 4, 2027, resolving based on available data. Revisions to NPM data are not considered unless they correct clearly erroneous data. Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) is the decider for private market valuations, and official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts are the deciders for public market capitalization.
Key dates
- Last date for valuation to be considered:
- NPM data update deadline: — 1:00 PM ET
- Extended resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET, if NPM data is incomplete
Resolution source
NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
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