Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the target valuation threshold of $2.5T and establish December 31, 2026 as the evaluation deadline. Resolution relies on a named primary source with an explicit URL for Nasdaq Private Market data, updated on a regular schedule. Detailed contingency provisions explain how the market handles potential corporate events, such as an IPO, direct listing, or acquisition, by specifying official regular-hours exchange pricing and public share counts. The decider has minimal discretion, and explicit dates govern resolution wait periods if data is delayed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's valuation reaches $2.5 trillion by December 31, 2026, using Nasdaq Private Market data, and uniquely incorporates public market capitalization if the company goes public.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's private market valuation, as reported by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds $2.5 trillion. If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing, the market will also consider the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO/direct listing date and December 31, 2026. Public market capitalization is determined by the highest official regular-hours trading price multiplied by total outstanding common shares. The market resolves No if the valuation does not reach $2.5 trillion by December 31, 2026. If NPM ceases publishing data, resolution will be based on available NPM data and any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company is acquired or ceases to exist as an independent entity, only valuations prior to the transaction are considered. The resolution source is NPM data, and for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or corporate action, official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Key dates
- Market End Date:
- Final Resolution Data Check: — If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET.
- Market May Remain Open Until: — If no further data is released by this time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
Resolution source
NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
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