Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?
Current price
3.4¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.4%
$438.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines resolution using a named, objective data source with a direct URL to Nasdaq Private Market data. The rules clearly specify the evaluation window through December 31, 2026, data update schedules, and precise handling for corporate actions such as an IPO, direct listing, or merger. Public equity calculations following an IPO are tied to official exchange prices and reported share counts, leaving virtually no room for decider latitude.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's private market valuation (or post-IPO public market capitalization) reaches or exceeds $5.0 trillion by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's private market valuation reaches or exceeds $5.0T on any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, according to the NPM Price published by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC. If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing, the market also resolves to Yes if its implied IPO/listing valuation or its regular-hours public market capitalization hits or exceeds $5.0T during the period. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not reach or exceed $5.0T by the deadline. If the company ceases to exist as an independent entity via acquisition or merger, only valuations prior to completion count, disregarding transaction consideration. If NPM data is delayed past January 1, 2027, resolution may wait until January 4, 2027, resolving on available data thereafter. Resolution is decided using Nasdaq Private Market, LLC data, or official exchange trading data and public share counts if public.
Key dates
- Evaluation period end: — Last date to assess Anthropic's valuation against the threshold.
- Initial data publication deadline: — Market may stay open until January 4, 2027 if NPM data is missing by 1:00 PM ET.
- Extended resolution deadline: — Market resolves on available data if no further data is released by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts following an IPO or direct listing
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