Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
Current price
17.5¢
+3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 17.5%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market establishes clear criteria and relies on a specific, named primary data source with a provided URL: Nasdaq Private Market's published NPM Price. Detailed fallback mechanics are defined in the event of an IPO, direct listing, acquisition, or cessation of coverage by the primary source. Definite deadlines and a brief reporting grace period ensure predictable settlement without leaving latitude to the resolving party.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's private market valuation (or public market capitalization following a listing) reaches or exceeds $3.0T by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's valuation reaches or exceeds $3.0T for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. This valuation is measured primarily by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC. If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing, the market also considers the valuation implied by the official listing price and its regular-hours public market capitalization. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not reach or exceed $3.0T during the specified period. Acquisition or merger transaction consideration is not counted if the company ceases to exist as an independent entity. Revisions to NPM data after initial release are ignored unless correcting clearly erroneous data. Resolution is determined by NPM published data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts after a public listing.
Key dates
- Valuation observation period end: — End of the period during which valuation must reach or exceed $3.0T.
- Data publication check: — Check at 1:00 PM ET for published NPM data across all business dates.
- Extended data resolution deadline: — Market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET if data is missing, resolving on available data thereafter.
Resolution source
Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) published data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.