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Tech & ScienceCloses · in 52 days$102.1K volumePart of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? →

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide a clear, deterministic framework anchored to a specific, named primary data source with a direct URL provided.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide a clear, deterministic framework anchored to a specific, named primary data source with a direct URL provided. The threshold and directional condition are clearly specified. In addition, the rules thoroughly address potential corporate events such as an initial public offering, direct listing, or merger by detailing exactly how public market capitalizations and share counts would be calculated from official exchange data. Contingencies for data reporting delays and post-publication revisions are also well-defined, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or decider discretion.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

13%

chance

▼ −0.5 pts · 24h

Yes13¢
No87¢
↑$2.25T · Yes · 1MO 40.5 H 47.5 L 7.5 C 13.0−27.5 (−67.9%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −11 pts24h · detected 11 Nov 2026, 00:25 UTC

The price dropped from 18% to 8% as part of a broader repricing across related valuation targets for Anthropic, with markets for $1.5T and $2.5T also moving down simultaneously.

  • Largest hourly change: 00:00 UTC, 43% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 55 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: ↑$1.5T (down), ↑$2.5T (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 00:40 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Rules history

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic's valuation reaches or exceeds $2.25T by December 31, 2026. Resolution is unusual because it relies primarily on Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) reported pricing, but also includes provisions for official public market data if the company goes public.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's private market valuation, measured by the NPM Price from Nasdaq Private Market, LLC, reaches or exceeds $2.25T on any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing, Yes also triggers if the implied listing valuation or regular-hours public market capitalization hits or exceeds $2.25T. The market resolves to No if this threshold is not met. If NPM ceases publication or the company is acquired, resolution relies on data published prior to the event; merger or acquisition consideration is excluded. Post-release revisions to NPM data are disregarded unless correcting clearly erroneous data. The deciding source is NPM data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts after an IPO.

Resolution source

NPM data published by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts following an IPO

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·