Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide an unambiguous, metric-based standard relying on a named primary source: the Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) Price via a dedicated URL. The threshold is explicitly tested for any point through December 31, 2026, with a clearly defined buffer period until January 4, 2027, to capture delayed data releases. Extensive, structured contingencies detail how an IPO, direct listing, acquisition, or data cessation would be handled, specifying exact public market capitalization formulas and share count sources rather than leaving outcomes to decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's valuation reaches or exceeds $700B by December 31, 2026, tracked primarily via Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) pricing or public market capitalization in the event of an IPO.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC, reaches or exceeds $700B for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing before the end date, the implied valuation from the listing price and subsequent public market capitalization during regular-hours trading also count toward the threshold. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not reach $700B within the specified timeframe. If Anthropic is acquired or merges and does not survive as the parent entity, only valuations prior to transaction completion count. The resolution source is NPM data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts post-IPO.
Key dates
- End of evaluation period: — Valuation must reach the threshold on or before this date.
- Data publication check: — NPM data check at 1:00 PM ET; market may extend if data is missing.
- Extended resolution cutoff: — Market resolves based on available data by 11:59 PM ET if extended.
Resolution source
Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) data, or official primary exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts
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