Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has well-defined resolution criteria tied to a specific URL for Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) valuation data. The rules clearly specify the date range through December 31, 2026, and provide detailed, mechanical fallback procedures for scenarios such as an initial public offering, direct listing, cessation of NPM coverage, or corporate acquisitions. The decider does not exercise subjective judgment, as resolution relies on published NPM prices or primary exchange pricing data multiplied by official share counts.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's private market valuation (or post-IPO public market capitalization) reaches or exceeds $600 billion by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's private market valuation, measured by the NPM Price from Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds $600 billion. If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing, the implied valuation from the official listing price or its public market capitalization during the period also counts toward resolving Yes. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not reach or exceed $600 billion during the specified period. Revisions to NPM data made after initial release are disregarded unless correcting clearly erroneous data. Transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration is disregarded if Anthropic ceases to be the surviving parent entity. The resolution source is NPM data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts following an IPO or direct listing.
Key dates
- valuation_period_end: — The final date of the evaluation period for Anthropic's valuation.
- initial_data_check: — If NPM has not published all relevant data by this time, the market may remain open.
- final_data_deadline: — The market will resolve based on available data if no further data is released by this deadline.
Resolution source
Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts
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