69¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 69%
$721.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
The rules provide an unambiguous, metric-driven resolution process anchored to a specific Nasdaq Private Market URL. Thresholds, valuation metrics, and fallback contingencies for corporate actions—such as an IPO, direct listing, or merger—are comprehensively specified with exact mathematical formulas and definitive exchange sources. The timeline is explicitly set through December 31, 2026, with a clear schedule for data publication cutoffs and late reporting.
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
The price fell from 73% to 62% as part of a broader repricing across related valuation outcomes for the event, with two related markets moving during the same period.
News check pending.
AI-generated · 18 Oct 2026, 00:05 UTC
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether Anthropic reaches a valuation of at least $1.75 trillion by December 31, 2026. What makes resolution unusual is its multi-stage framework that tracks private valuations via Nasdaq Private Market data, but transitions to IPO pricing and public exchange market capitalization if the company goes public.
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price from Nasdaq Private Market, reaches or exceeds $1.75T for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing, the implied listing valuation and post-listing regular-hours public market capitalization also count toward this threshold. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not reach or exceed $1.75T within the period. If Anthropic is acquired or ceases to exist as an independent entity, only valuations achieved prior to transaction completion count, and acquisition consideration is disregarded. Resolution is determined using NPM data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts post-IPO.
Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts following an IPO or direct listing
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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