Will European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines winning as securing the most seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of the scheduled election. It includes explicit tie-breaking criteria based on total valid votes and alphabetical order, and specifies that lists are judged as they appear on the ballot regardless of subsequent parliamentary regrouping. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, it designates an official backstop source—the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia—in the event of any ambiguity. Participants should note the timeout clause resolving to 'Other' if official outcomes remain unknown past March 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the electoral list European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš will win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. Resolution relies strictly on the official list name on the ballot regardless of subsequent parliamentary reorganization.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly. Resolution depends solely on the seats won by the named list as it appears on the ballot, regardless of party composition or later parliamentary organization. If lists tie on seats, the tie is broken by total valid votes, and then by alphabetical order. The market resolves to No if another list finishes highest under these ranking rules. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the Serbian parliamentary election.
- Definitive results deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia
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