Will Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how to determine the winning electoral list based on the number of seats won in the National Assembly of Serbia. Detailed tie-breaking mechanisms are defined, starting with total valid votes and falling back to alphabetical order. The resolution source relies primarily on credible reporting with the official Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia designated as the definitive authority in case of ambiguity. There is also a explicit timeout cutoff that resolves to Other if results are not finalized by March 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the electoral list "Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović" wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. Resolution relies on ballot lists regardless of post-election parliamentary organizing, with tiebreakers based on popular votes and alphabetical order.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly. Ties in seats are broken first by the higher number of valid votes received, and then by alphabetical order. Resolution evaluates the list as named on the ballot and official proclamations, ignoring internal party composition or future parliamentary organization. The market resolves to No if another list ranks first. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia serving as the deciding source in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled parliamentary election: — Date set for the election of 250 members of the National Assembly.
- Definitive result deadline: — If results are not known by 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia deciding in cases of ambiguity
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