Will SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined, prioritizing total seats won with explicit tie-breaking criteria based on vote counts and alphabetical order. Resolution relies on electoral lists as officially proclaimed, ignoring post-election legislative reorganizations. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, the official Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia is designated as the fallback to eliminate ambiguity. A long backstop deadline through March 31, 2027 provides ample time for election certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the electoral list SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak will win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election, using tiebreaker rules if seat counts are equal.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if the electoral list SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia in the 2026 parliamentary election, or ranks highest after tiebreakers. Lists tied on seats are broken first by total valid votes received, then alphabetically by listed name. The count is based strictly on the named list on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of constituent parties or post-election organization. It resolves to No if another list wins the highest rank. It resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the Serbian parliamentary election.
- Resolution cutoff date: March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET falls after the stated market end date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (rik.parlament.gov.rs) as the authority in case of ambiguity.
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