Will Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how to determine the winning electoral list based on the total seats won in the National Assembly of Serbia. Detailed tie-breaking mechanisms are defined, starting with total valid votes and defaulting to alphabetical order if necessary. Post-election coalitions or reorganizations are explicitly excluded. The resolution relies primarily on consensus reporting, backed by the official Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia in the event of ambiguity, and provides an ample longstop date through March 31, 2027, resolving to Other if results are not finalized by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the electoral list Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification will win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. It includes specific tiebreaking rules based on total valid votes and alphabetical order.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification electoral list wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia in the 2026 election, or wins any tiebreakers based on total valid votes and alphabetical order. The market resolves to No if another electoral list finishes highest. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia.
Key dates
- Election date: — Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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