Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
Current price
1.25¢
+1.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.25%
$156K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves using official vote tallies from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to calculate the margin of victory in valid votes. However, participants face notable structural traps. First, the question asks whether Lula wins by 8–12%, but the rules resolve the market to 'Other' if any candidate other than Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro receives the most votes, which creates unexpected counterparty risk if a different candidate reaches or wins the runoff. Second, the rules state that values falling exactly between two brackets resolve to the higher range bracket, which requires careful interpretation of boundary numbers (such as whether 8.0% or 12.0% is inclusive). If the definitive result is delayed past June 30, 2027, the market automatically resolves to 'Other'.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of 8% to 12% over the second-place candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the second round with an absolute margin of victory between 8% and 12% of valid votes. Values falling exactly on a bracket boundary resolve to the higher range bracket. The market resolves to No if Lula wins by a margin outside this range or loses to Flávio Bolsonaro. The market resolves to Other if a candidate other than Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro receives the most valid votes, if the top two candidates tie in valid votes, or if the definitive result is unknown by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If a recount occurs before results are official, the market stays open until completion. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if ambiguous.
Key dates
- Second round election date: — The scheduled date for the second round of the presidential election in Brazil.
- Definitive result resolution deadline: — The market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to the Brazilian government's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
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