Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Current price
0.95¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.95%
$175.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define margin calculation based on official valid vote totals from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) once certified. However, there are significant exceptional clauses to be aware of: if any candidate other than Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round, the market resolves to 'Other', meaning a Lula victory against any opponent besides Flávio Bolsonaro will not resolve according to this margin bracket. Furthermore, the boundary handling specifies that a margin landing exactly on the boundary resolves to the higher range bracket, and the source hierarchy initially mentions a consensus of credible reporting before falling back to official TSE data if ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of 4% to 8% of valid votes.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the second round of the next Brazilian presidential election with a margin of victory between 4% and 8% of valid votes. If the margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves to Other if a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes, if the top two candidates tie, or if the result is not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If a recount occurs before official certification, resolution waits for completion. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Second round of presidential election: — Date scheduled for the second round in Brazil
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
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