Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$132.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market question asks a binary question regarding whether Lula will win the second round by at least 12%, but the text includes rule boilerplate designed for a multi-choice bracket market. These rules state that the market will resolve to 'Other' if the result is delayed past June 30, 2027, if the top two candidates tie, or if someone other than Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro wins the most votes. Furthermore, it mentions resolving to a 'higher range bracket' in the event of a borderline value. The official math and source are clear, relying on valid vote counts certified by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) or consensus reporting, but the copy-pasted bracket and 'Other' resolution mechanics introduce structural oddities for a binary question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of victory of at least 12% over the second-place candidate.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round and his margin of victory over the second-place candidate is at least 12.0% of all valid votes cast. This market resolves to No if Lula wins by less than 12.0%, or if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round. This market resolves to Other if a candidate other than Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro receives the most valid votes, if the top two candidates tie in valid votes, or if the definitive result is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If a value falls exactly on a boundary, it resolves to the higher range bracket. If a recount occurs before official certification, resolution waits for completion. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguities resolved solely by the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE).
Key dates
- Second round election date: — The scheduled date for the second round of the Brazilian presidential election.
- Resolution deadline: If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
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