2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
6 live outcomes · highest priced: Democrats 10-12% at 19% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $158.6K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, measuring which specific percentage margin bracket the final results will fall into.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a set of mutually exclusive margin brackets. Because the rules specify that a value falling exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher range bracket, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Markets resolve based on the popular vote margin of victory between Democratic and Republican candidates for voting members of the U.S. House across the 50 states. The percentage for each party is calculated by dividing its total valid candidate votes by all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates. A market resolves Yes if the final margin falls within its specified bracket, with exact boundary ties going to the higher range. If the elections do not occur by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by 11:59 PM ET for the election to take place and results to be published.
Resolution source
US Clerk of the House
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats 10-12% | 19% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| Democrats 0-2% | 5% | ▲ 2 | Low | Med | |
| Democrats 2-4% | 3% | ▼ 2 | Low | Med | |
| Democrats 14-16% | 3% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Democrats 16%+ | 3% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Republicans 2-4% | 2% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Democrats 12-14% | 10% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Democrats 8-10% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Democrats 6-8% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Democrats 4-6% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Republicans 0-2% | — | — | Low | Med | |
| Republicans 4-6% | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Republicans 6%+ | — | — | Not rated | Med |