Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 16% or more?
Current price
2.5¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.5%
$5.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide an exact mathematical formula for calculating the national House popular vote margin, specifying that the denominator is all valid votes cast for voting House members in the 50 states. The designated primary resolution source is official election statistics published by the US Clerk of the House. Because official Clerk of the House statistics often take months post-election to compile and publish, resolution will likely face an extended delay into 2027. A fallback clause allows an alternative credible source only if the Clerk fails to publish by June 30, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the nationwide popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections by a margin of 16% or more over the Republican Party.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party's popular vote margin of victory over the Republican Party is 16% or greater. The margin is the difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for Democratic candidates and Republican candidates out of all valid votes cast for voting members of the House in the 50 states (excluding Delegates and the Resident Commissioner). If the value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves to No if the Democratic margin is less than 16%. The market resolves to Other if the elections do not occur by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is election statistics published by the US Clerk of the House, including any published recounts, with another credible source chosen if the Clerk does not publish by June 30, 2027.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date of the US House of Representatives midterm elections.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for the elections to take place and for the Clerk of the House to publish results.
Resolution source
US Clerk of the House
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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