Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?
Current price
28.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 28.5%
$16.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise mathematical formulas for calculating the popular vote percentage margin, explicitly defining the denominator as all valid votes cast for voting House members across the 50 states. The primary resolution source is a specific official repository published by the US Clerk of the House. Timing risk is moderate because official House election statistics take several months to compile and publish following general elections, and the rules accommodate this with a fallback deadline of June 30, 2027. Boundary conditions are explicitly handled with a rule directing exact ties between brackets to resolve to the higher range.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the national popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives by an 8% to 10% margin over the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party's popular vote margin of victory over the Republican Party in the 2026 U.S. House elections is between 8% and 10%. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. Only votes cast for voting members of the House from the 50 states count, excluding Delegates and the Resident Commissioner. The market resolves to No if the margin falls outside this range. The market resolves to Other if the elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The US Clerk of the House decides based on its published election statistics, including recounts. If the Clerk does not publish results by June 30, 2027, another credible source may be used.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Scheduled date for the US House of Representatives midterm elections.
- Resolution cutoff: — Cutoff date for the election to occur and for the Clerk of the House to publish results.
Resolution source
US Clerk of the House
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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