Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?
Current price
19.5¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 19.5%
$17.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide a precise mathematical formula for calculating the national House popular vote margin, explicitly defining the denominator as all valid votes cast for voting House members in the 50 states. The market relies on an authoritative official source, the US Clerk of the House election statistics publication, with a clear backup plan and long deadline (June 30, 2027) to accommodate official certification delays. A standard boundary tie-break rule is also specified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections by a margin between 6% and 8%. The market has a specific method for calculating the popular vote margin and a defined fallback if the election does not occur or results are not published.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party's popular vote margin of victory over the Republican Party is between 6% and 8%, inclusive of the endpoints. The popular vote margin is the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes for all Democratic House candidates and all Republican House candidates. Only votes for U.S. Representative candidates from the 50 states are counted; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner are excluded. If the calculated margin falls exactly between two defined brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves No if the Democratic Party's popular vote margin of victory is outside the 6% to 8% range. The market resolves Other if the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The US Clerk of the House determines the outcome based on their published vote totals, including any recounts. If the Clerk of the House does not publish results by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source may be chosen.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Market Expiration if Election Not Held or Results Not Published:
Resolution source
US Clerk of the House
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