Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?
Last captured price
2.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.25%
$5.3K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Gotcha coverage has not been generated for this market.
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by a margin of 4% to 6%. The resolution is unusual because it specifies how to handle exact mid-point percentages.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party wins the popular vote by a margin of 4% to 6% inclusive. The popular vote margin is the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes for all Democratic Party House candidates and all Republican Party House candidates. Percentages are calculated by dividing a party's total valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates. Only votes for U.S. Representative candidates from the 50 states are considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner are not. If the margin falls exactly between two percentage points, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves Other if the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves No if none of the above conditions are met. Resolution is based on vote totals published by the US Clerk of the House, including any recounts. If the Clerk of the House does not publish results by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source may be chosen.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Market Expiration Date: — If elections do not take place or results are not published by this date, the market may resolve to 'Other'.
Resolution source
US Clerk of the House
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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