Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?
Current price
2.4¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.4%
$31.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide a rigorous mathematical definition for calculating the popular vote margin, specifying the exact numerator, denominator, and candidate eligibility criteria. The designated authority is a specific official government source, the US Clerk of the House, with a precise URL provided. The rules also establish a clear tie-breaking rule for values landing on exact bracket boundaries and include a reasonable long-stop deadline of June 30, 2027, to accommodate the typical publication timeline for official congressional election statistics.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the national popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections by a margin between 2% and 4% over the Democratic Party.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the national popular vote for voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives by between 2% and 4% over the Democratic Party. If the margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. Only votes for House representatives from the 50 states are counted, excluding Delegates and the Resident Commissioner. This market resolves to No if the Republican margin falls outside this range or if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote. This market resolves to Other if the midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by official election statistics published by the US Clerk of the House, including any recounts. If the Clerk does not publish results by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible source may be used.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date scheduled for the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Deadline for the elections to occur and for the Clerk of the House to publish results.
Resolution source
US Clerk of the House
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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