Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?
Last captured price
18.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 18.5%
$11K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules provide a precise mathematical formula for calculating the margin and name an official primary source, the US Clerk of the House. However, official statistics from the Clerk of the House typically take several months to be compiled and published following an election, creating a long resolution timeline. Additionally, there is a critical distinction between the question and the resolution rules: the question asks if the Democratic Party will win by between 10% and 12%, but the rules define the margin as the absolute difference between the parties, meaning a Republican victory by that same margin could technically meet the definition of the margin of victory under the literal rule text unless party directionality is enforced. The rules also include a tie-breaker assigning exact boundary values to the higher bracket.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by a margin of 10% to 12%. The resolution is unusual because it specifically defines the popular vote margin and how to handle exact boundary values.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party's popular vote margin of victory over the Republican Party is between 10% and 12%, inclusive of 10% and 12%. The popular vote margin is the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes for all Democratic House candidates and all Republican House candidates. The percentage for each party is calculated by dividing their total valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 50 states. Votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner are not considered. If the calculated margin falls exactly on a boundary between two specified ranges, it resolves to the higher range. The market resolves No if the Democratic Party's popular vote margin of victory is outside the 10% to 12% range. The market resolves Other if the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The U.S. Clerk of the House determines the outcome based on their published vote totals, including any recounts. If the Clerk of the House does not publish results by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source may be chosen.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Market Expiration Date: — If elections do not take place or results are not published by this date, the market may resolve to 'Other' or use an alternative source.
Resolution source
US Clerk of the House
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.