Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?
Current price
2.15¢
−3.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.15%
$18.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide an exact mathematical formula for calculating the national popular vote share and margin between the Democratic and Republican parties, explicitly limiting the calculation to voting members from the 50 states and defining the denominator as all valid votes cast. Resolution relies on an official, authoritative record published by the Clerk of the House. Because the Clerk of the House historically takes several months to compile and publish certified national statistics, resolution will not be immediate following the election, but the rules account for this with an extended June 30, 2027 deadline and a clear bracket tie-break rule.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the nationwide popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections by a margin between 2% and 4%.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote by a margin between 2% and 4%, inclusive of the higher bracket if a value falls exactly on the boundary. It resolves No if the margin falls outside this range or if the Republican Party wins the popular vote. It resolves to Other if the midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The popular vote margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference between the parties' percentages of total valid votes cast for voting members of the House from the 50 states, excluding non-voting Delegates and the Resident Commissioner. Resolution is determined by the US Clerk of the House election statistics, including any recounts, or another credible source if the Clerk does not publish results by June 30, 2027.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for the elections to take place and results to be published.
Resolution source
US Clerk of the House (Election Statistics)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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