Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?
Last captured price
4.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.4%
$22.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules provide a precise mathematical formula for calculating the margin of victory, defining both the numerator (votes cast for party candidates in voting House seats) and the denominator (total valid votes cast across all 50 states). Resolution relies on an official primary source, the published election statistics from the US Clerk of the House. Because the Clerk typically compiles and releases these nationwide certified figures several months after election day, resolution will not be immediate and could extend into mid-2027. The rules explicitly specify how boundary ties are handled and include a longstop date of June 30, 2027, before any alternate reporting source may be consulted.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the nationwide popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by a margin between 0% and 2% over the Republican Party.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party's popular vote margin over the Republican Party in the 2026 U.S. House elections is between 0% and 2%, including boundary values resolved to the higher range bracket if falling exactly between brackets. Margin is calculated using valid votes for voting Representatives across the 50 states, excluding Delegates and the Resident Commissioner. The market resolves to No if the margin falls outside this range or if Democrats do not win the popular vote. The market resolves to Other if the elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary deciding source is the vote totals published by the US Clerk of the House, including any published recounts; if unpublished by June 30, 2027, another credible source may be used.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Scheduled date for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
- Resolution cutoff date: — Deadline for elections to occur and Clerk of the House results to be published.
Resolution source
US Clerk of the House
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.