Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Last captured price
72¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 72%
$9.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market clearly defines the mathematical formula for calculating the margin of victory, specifying that percentages are based on total valid votes cast rather than only the top two candidates' combined vote. Resolution primarily relies on the official state election authority, though it allows a consensus of credible reporting as an alternative, introducing modest decider discretion. The resolution criteria align closely with the natural reading of the question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the margin of victory in the 2026 Iowa Senate race is 5% or less between the top two candidates based on total valid votes cast.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the 2026 Iowa Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Margin of victory is the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates, calculated by dividing each candidate's valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast. For multi-round, ranked-choice, or runoff elections, the relevant margin is from the round where the winner is decided. The market resolves to No if the margin of victory is greater than 5%. Resolution is determined by the state election authority of Iowa, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held.
Resolution source
The state election authority of Iowa, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.