Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Last captured price
74.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 74.5%
$5.6K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Gotcha coverage has not been generated for this market.
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
Explainer coverage has not been generated for this market.
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.