Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Last captured price
60.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 60.5%
$5.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide a clear mathematical formula for calculating the margin of victory, defining it as the absolute difference between the top two candidates' share of total valid votes. Official state election authorities serve as the primary source, though the rules permit using a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary alternative. Multi-round or ranked-choice scenarios are explicitly addressed. The primary element to track is final certified vote totals if the margin falls extremely close to the 5.00% threshold.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the 2026 Nebraska Senate race will be decided by a margin of victory of 5.0% or less between the top two finishers.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates is 5% or less. Candidate percentages are calculated by dividing their valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election. For multi-round, ranked-choice, or runoff elections, the margin is taken from the final round determining the winner. The market resolves to No if the margin of victory is greater than 5%. Resolution is determined by the state election authority of Nebraska, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date the 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held
Resolution source
The state election authority of Nebraska, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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