Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Current price
11.6¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 11.6%
$141K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define FDV as total supply multiplied by price, set a precise evaluation time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, and provide a longstop expiration date of December 31, 2027. However, the resolution source is broadly defined as 'the most liquid price source available' rather than a named exchange, price aggregator, or on-chain oracle. This leaves room for discretion in determining which venue counts as the most liquid and what exact price is recorded at the designated timestamp, which could be critical if the token trades near the threshold.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token exceeds $3 billion one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token is greater than $3 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. To count as a launch, the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $3 billion at that time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Market resolves to No if no token launches by this time.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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