Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Current price
6.85¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.85%
$178.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly define the launch criteria, calculation method, and precise measurement time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. However, resolution relies on the most liquid price source available without naming a specific exchange or pricing aggregator in advance. If the token price trades near the four billion dollar valuation threshold across multiple decentralized or centralized venues at the target timestamp, the decider will have to determine which platform qualifies as having the deepest liquidity, which could influence the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token exceeds $4 billion exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token is greater than $4 billion one day after launch. Launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $4 billion at that time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The most liquid price source available determines the token price.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Market resolves to No if no token launches by this time.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.