Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Christopher Luxon at 53% · first close Nov 8, 2026 · $42.6K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand general election, specifically measuring which candidate will become the next Prime Minister of New Zealand following the election.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains one market per candidate. Because the rules specify resolution to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister, at most one candidate market can resolve Yes. If no individual takes office by the deadline, the market resolves to "Other".
How it resolves
A candidate's market resolves to Yes if that individual is officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 general election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count toward resolution. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other". Official information from the Government of New Zealand serves as the primary resolution source, alongside consensus reporting from credible sources.
Key dates
- Scheduled General Election: — Scheduled date for the New Zealand general election.
- Resolution Deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET after which the market resolves to "Other" if no Prime Minister has taken office.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of New Zealand or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Luxon | 53% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Chris Hipkins | 47% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Winston Peters | — | — | Low | Med | |
| Nicola Willis | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Chlöe Swarbrick | — | — | Low | Med | |
| David Seymour | — | — | Low | Med | |
| Carmel Sepuloni | — | — | Not rated | High |