Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Current price
46.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 46.5%
$14.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has straightforward and unambiguous resolution criteria. Resolution requires an official appointment as Prime Minister by the Governor-General of New Zealand following the 2026 general election, with interim or caretaker roles explicitly excluded. Official government records serve as the primary source, backed by credible reporting, and a generous backstop date of December 31, 2027, prevents timing disputes if government formation negotiations take several weeks or months.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Chris Hipkins will be officially appointed as the next Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 general election, excluding any interim or caretaker appointments.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Chris Hipkins is the next individual officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections, excluding any interim or caretaker appointments. The market resolves to No if a different individual is appointed to the office. The market resolves to Other if no eligible Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of New Zealand, with a consensus of credible reporting also accepted.
Key dates
- Scheduled general election: — Date the general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister takes office by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of New Zealand, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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