Will David Seymour be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly specify that the individual must be officially appointed as Prime Minister by the Governor-General following the 2026 general election. Caretaker and interim appointments are explicitly excluded from counting. Resolution is primarily anchored to official information from the Government of New Zealand, with consensus credible reporting permitted as a backup. A definitive cutoff date of December 31, 2027, prevents indefinite delays and resolves to an alternative outcome if no appointment occurs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether David Seymour becomes the next Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 general election, excluding interim or caretaker appointments.
How it resolves
The market resolves to David Seymour (or Yes) if he is officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections, excluding any interim or caretaker appointments. The market resolves to another named candidate (or No) if a different eligible individual is officially appointed to the office. The market resolves to "Other" if no eligible Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is official information from the Government of New Zealand or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Scheduled general election: — Date of the scheduled New Zealand general election.
- Resolution cutoff: December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET (later than market end date).
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of New Zealand, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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