Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Current price
52.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 52.5%
$13.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution requires an individual to be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister following the 2026 general election, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointments. There is a generous backstop date of December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if no one takes office by then. The market primarily relies on official information from the New Zealand government, though it allows a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary measure.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Christopher Luxon will be the next officially appointed Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 general elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Christopher Luxon is the next individual officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 general election, excluding interim or caretaker appointments. The market resolves to No if a different individual officially assumes the office under the same conditions. The market resolves to Other if no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution will be determined using official information from the Government of New Zealand or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Scheduled general election: — Date of the scheduled New Zealand general election.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister takes office by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of New Zealand, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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