Will Chlöe Swarbrick be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly define who counts: the next individual officially appointed as Prime Minister by the Governor-General following the 2026 general election. Interim and caretaker roles are explicitly excluded. The resolution relies on official government information with reporting consensus as a backup for what is an objective constitutional appointment. A long backstop deadline through December 31, 2027 provides ample time for coalition negotiations and formal swearing-in procedures.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether Chlöe Swarbrick becomes the next Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 general election, requiring official appointment by the Governor-General while excluding interim or caretaker roles.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Chlöe Swarbrick is officially appointed by the Governor-General as the next Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 general election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count. The market resolves No if another individual officially assumes the office as the next Prime Minister. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister officially takes office by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of New Zealand decides resolution, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- General election date: — Scheduled date for the New Zealand general election.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister takes office by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of New Zealand, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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