Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
1.05¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.05%
$1.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify the exact metric, trading pair, exchange, candle interval, and price field required for resolution. Resolution relies strictly on the 1-minute candle low price for BTC/USDT on Binance between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, Eastern Time. The market resolves early to Yes if the price touches or falls below $25,000 during this window, and to No otherwise. There is no decider discretion, and explicitly only Binance BTC/USDT data is considered.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $25,000 or lower on Binance before the end of 2026. Resolution is strictly tied to Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle data starting November 24, 2025, excluding all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance one-minute candle for BTC/USDT records a final Low price equal to or lower than $25,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no qualifying candle reaches that threshold within the specified period. Binance serves as the sole resolution source via its BTC/USDT one-minute candlestick data. Prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or alternative trading pairs are disregarded.
Key dates
- Start of tracking period: — 14:00 ET
- End of tracking period: — 23:59 ET
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.